Issue 10

Probabilities

Question: What do gambling and predicting the weather have in common?

Answer: They are both based on probabilities.

Probability is defined as the chance an event will happen.  We use words such as likely, unlikely, probably, maybe, certain, and impossible to describe probability in every day life.  The most common place where we hear about probability is in weather forecasting.

Recently, Wanna Bet? junior editor, Amanda, interviewed Meteorologist Phil Johnson from KDLH NewsChannel 3 about using probabilities to predict the weather.  Phil says that forecasting the weather is difficult because the factors that cause weather are beyond human control.

Forecasting the weather is like betting on a game of chance.  In a game of chance, winning and losing are not influenced by physical or mental ability, they depend solely on the odds of the game.  In other words, you don't know what will happen until it happens!

In predicting the weather, Phil says he uses science, radar, and his educational background to tell his television audience if they'll need to bring their umbrella or their snow boots.  Even with all the computer technology and information available, Phil knows he cannot always make an accurate prediction. Just like with gambling, no matter how much you think you know about the game, nothing is ever a sure bet.

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